Sophomore Break-out or Busts

A sarcastic and annoyingly ridiculous look at which players are going to break out in their sophomore year in the NFL, and which ones might flame out...

Every year, drafted and undrafted rookies achieve or overachieve. Duh. Call it a blanket statement or a cliche, but it needs to be said to give this post some sort of premise. Sometimes first year players pull a Cam Newton and just absolutely kill it in year one. Other times they pull a Jake Locker and hardly see the field despite being drafted in the top ten.
Here are five second-year players ready to break out in their second year after a disappointing rookie campaign, and five who are going to disappoint yet again, potentially moving them to bust status.

READY TO BREAK OUT

DT Nick Fairley, Detroit Lions
Round 1, Pick 13
There is little doubt that Fairley can improve on his premiere season which was riddled with injuries. He's a fairly good pass-rusher, a fairly good run-stopper, and a fairly explosive force in the middle of the line...when he's fairly healthy; and by "fairly" I mean he's damn good...when fairly healthy. Kill Nick Fairley's last name in an analytical blog post? Check! If the former Auburn Tiger can avoid Jahvid Best syndrome, he could become one of the best more effective linemen for defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham.

LT Nate Solder, New England Patriots
Round 1, Pick 17
Current Pats left tackle Matt Light is on the verge of retiring. In fact, he could be retired right now but the media wouldn't know about if The Hoodie has anything to say about the matter. Solder is a physical behemoth. He's 6-foot-8, a former tight end at Colorado, and spent a year behind a staple on the NFL All-Pro team. Solder clearly has the durability and football know-how to hang with the best in the NFL. Given the Bills' new toy on defense (All-Pro defensive end Mario Williams), Solder is going to have to put his big boy pants on at least twice this year when the Pats play Buffalo.


CB Prince Amukamara, New Jersey New York Giants
Round 1, Pick 19
The Prince's season was shortened due to injury. With the loss of Aaron Ross to the Jacksonville Jaguars, it is becoming more and more likely that the nineteenth overall pick of last year's draft will have an important role in keeping balls out of the hands of receivers (that's what she said) from 2012 onward until his rookie deal is over.

WR Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers
Round 2, Pick 64
Donald Driver's retirement has thrust Mr. Cobb into Driver's old position as the man opposite Greg Jennings on the Packers' default offensive set. Some analysts experts anonymous bloggers people slated Cobb as a late first round pick out of Kentucky to these very Packers, but he wound up in Gang Green a short while thereafter after all. Look for Cobb to have a year similar to Nate Burleson, however don't look for Cobb to say ridiculous Burleson-esque things like "I'm the black Wes Welker."

LB Kelvin Sheppard, Buffalo Bills
Round 3, Pick 68
I alluded to a new toy in Buffalo in the form of Mario Williams (HOLY SHIT $H!T!!! Mario...Mario Brothers...video games..."toy"...I'm a freakin' bored college kid swami!). Having Mario Williams on one end, former third overall draft pick Marcell Dareus in the middle, and Dwan Edwards on the other end, Sheppard has the capacity to pull his best Jon Beason impression and get 150 tackles this year. I only say this because I don't see the Bills doing much on offense to give them the ball for more than 25 minutes a game. Sheppard will have to be a tremendous tackler given how often the Bills "D" will see the field.



READY TO BUST CAP (space)

QB Blaine Gabbert, Jacksonville Jaguars
Round 1, Pick 10
I'll give you three reasons why Blaine Gabbert will not make it in the NFL:
1. He plays for Jacksonville.
2. He plays for Jacksonville and he's not MJD.
3. He plays for Jacksonville and...well, he plays for Jacksonville..

CB Jimmy Smith, Baltimore Ravens
Round 1, Pick 27
If you paid any attention to Jimmy Smith's career in Colorado, or even read anything about him in the pre-draft process last year, you'd know that Smith has a history of drug-related off-the-field issues. Though this has nothing to do with the fact that Smith was picked on last year as a rookie in the secondary with Baltimore a year ago, I may or may not be still bitter about him picking Tom Brady in the AFC Championship last year. With that said, Smith needs to become a consistent staple in the Ravens secondary in order to earn a full-time spot on the field. Two interceptions in one season is not going to cut it for a first-round corner.


RB Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints
Round 1, Pick 28
The Saints are cleary in a world of hurt. Head coach Sean Payton is gone for the year to suspension. Drew Brees is unhappy with his contract. And more Mark Ingram related, Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas offer more versatility than the former Heisman Trophy winner. The age of Terrell Davis running backs is over. Ingram will settle nicely into the third spot in the Saints' depth chart.

QB Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers
Round 2, Pick 36
It's always tough to be drafted as a quarterback in the first two rounds given the expectations young arms are burdened with in the first few years of their careers in the modern NFL era. It didn't help that Alex Smith had a year worthy of the Comeback Player of the Year award. It also didn't help Kaepernick's case that the man picked right before him (Andy Dalton, Bengals) started Week 1, led his team to the playoffs, and went to a Pro Bowl. Kaepernick needs Alex Smith to blow out his knee (or worse) in Training Camp to get any shot at playing this year.

DE Da'Quan Bowers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Round 2, Pick 51
What a fall Bowers had from the NCAA regular season in 2010 to being considered as a number one overall pick, then having to have surgery because of a gay porn bone-on-bone condition in his knee. Bowers is considered the Sergio Kindle of the 2011 NFL Draft (Kindle was a consensus top fifteen pick in the 2010 Draft but dropped to the second round due to imminent microfracture surgery). I can't see Bowers getting healthy enough with 80-year old knees on a 22-year old body.

Exeunt

Pre-Free Agency Primer

Here are your predictions for the top six players available at each position in the 2012 class of free agents. Feel free to criticize, agree with, and/or give me your predictions in the comments below.

Quarterbacks

1. Peyton Manning (Colts)
Prediction: Arizona Cardinals
I'll refer to a prior post of mine that detailed why Manning is right for Arizona and Arizona is right for Peyton Manning: Elite wide receiver target, small market obscurity; little media scrutiny, University of Phoenix Stadium and its lovely, convenient dome.


2. Jason Campbell (Raiders)
Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars
Though the New Jersey Jets could be in play here, the Jags have a need at quarterback with only Blaine Gabbert signed at the moment. Campbell would provide cheap, good veteran competition in training camp and someone who Gabbert could potentially learn behind for a year. In other words, let Campbell take the majority of the hits for a year or two while the new front office builds its offense from the ground up.

3. Kyle Orton (Broncos)
Prediction: Seattle Seahawks
Since Denver is a key player in the Peyton Manning sweepstakes, I will assume that Orton will be moved to a low-end team in rebuilding mode with a chance to start. Seattle seems to be fading fast as a player for Peyton Manning.

Players that will stay with their respective teams:
Alex Smith (49ers)
Matt Flynn (Packers)
Brian Hoyer (Patriots)


Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

1. Vincent Jackson (Chargers)
Prediction: Washington Redskins
The Skins have a tremendous amount of cap space and a significant need to get talent on offense. Part of this is because Mike Shanahan doesn't have a first round draft pick until 2015. RG3 plus Jackson and Santana Moss would provide this team with the means to make a splash in the NFC East.

2. Reggie Wayne (Colts)
Prediction: Wherever Peyton Manning goes
See "Wherever Peyton Manning goes."

3. Mike Wallace (Restricted, First Round Tender - Steelers)
Prediction: Chicago Bears
Da Bears have already expressed interest in Vincent Jackson, however they'll have a better chance at Wallace given their cap room and precedent of giving away first round picks for overrated players.

4. Brandon Lloyd (Rams)
Prediction: New England Patriots
Lloyd established himself as one of Josh McDaniels' favorite "toys" in St. Louis, and one of Sam Bradford's favorite target. The Patriots lacked a legitimate vertical threat in 2011. Lloyd will help remedy that in 2012.

Players that will remain with their current teams:
Marques Colston (Saints)
Laurent Robinson (Cowboys)


Running Backs

1. Cedric Benson (Bengals)
Prediction: Washington Redskins
Benson is a great between-the-tackles back who is durable. Washington lacks a great offensive line and needs help adding depth with the oft-injured Ryan Torrain.

2. Michael Bush (Raiders)
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals
Cincy is losing Benson, but they have enough cap space to make room for a 1,000-yard rusher in Michael Bush. Look for the Bengals to add a legitimate ground threat to compliment Andy Dalton/AJ Green.

Players that will remain with their current teams:
Peyton Hillis (Browns)
Mike Tolbert (Chargers)
Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis (Patriots)
Thomas Jones (Chiefs)

Offensive Linemen

Since this position is just a complete free agency cluster-you-know-what, I'm going to pass on predictions...with the exception of disappointing Lions fans by predicting Jeff Backus back on a two-year deal.


Defensive Linemen

1. Mario Williams (Texans)
Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles
Williams is at his best in a 4-3 system, however Philly has a huge need in their front seven. Given the fact that the Eagles front office could be desperate given the disappointment they experienced a season ago, I could see Andy Reid overspending for the best defensive lineman in this year's class.

2. John Abraham (Falcons)
Prediction: New Orleans Saints
Why the hell not? Put Abraham opposite of second-year defensive end Cameron Jordan and you have yourself a worthy defensive line, a problem spot in the Saint's defense.

3. Jason Jones (Titans)
Prediction: San Diego Chargers
Obviously the Chargers have a defensive problem. One of the best interior linemen in football should be a decent front seven remedy.

Players that will remain with their current teams:
Andre Carter (Patriots)
Shaun Rogers (Saints)
Cory Redding (Ravens)

Linebackers

1. Stephen Tulloch (Lions)
Prediction: Tampa Bay Bucs
The Lions won't be able to retain Tulloch given the contract he'll demand (and probably get). The Bucs need help in the second level on their front seven. It's a natural fit.

2. James Farrior (Steelers)
Prediction: New Jersey Giants
Farrior was cut for cap reasons and will likely only consider signing with a team with an established defense. The Giants make perfect sense.

Players that will remain with their current teams:
London Fletcher (Redskins)
Dan Connor (Panthers)
Curtis Lofton (Falcons)
DeAndre Levy (Restricted - Lions)


Defensive Backs

1. Carlos Rogers (49ers)
Prediction: Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are an up-and-coming NFC South team that need talent, especially on defense. The Rams could be an option if they do not take Morris Claiborne with the sixth overall pick in the 2012 Draft.

2. Cortland Finnegan (Titans)
Prediction: Detroit Lions
Finnegan embodies the attitude that Detroit just loves; the hard-working, hard-hitting corner will fit in with Nndamukong Suh and Louis Delmas as competitive SOBs who love to take their shots.

3. Marcus Trufant (Seahawks)
Prediction: Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings might lose third-year corner Chris Cook to drug-related off-the-field issues. The former second-rounder will be replaced by a veteran and talented defensive mainstay.

Players that will remain with their current teams:
Brandon Carr (Chiefs)
Eric Wright (Lions)
Will Allen (Dolphins)
Tracy Porter (Saints)

Ze End.

P.S. In a week, I'll re-visit these and see how wrong I was. Stay tuned.

Peyton Manning from a Different Perspective

As a fan of football and of the New England Patriots, I was sincerely blessed with the year-to-year friendly rivalry between Peyton Manning's Indianapolis Colts and Tom Brady's Pats. Their careers will be forever intertwined in the combined successes as the two best quarterbacks of the 21st Century; this is adamant and undisputed.

Both men have multiple MVP awards. Both men set the single-season passing touchdowns record. Both men have won at least one Super Bowl and have at least one Super Bowl MVP.

Both men have been criticized as regular-season quarterbacks only in one aspect of their career or another. Both men have missed an entire season to a fluke injury. Both have lost big games to the other.

Peyton Manning is a stand-up guy and a class act. My opinion of him was cemented on last Wednesday when he went off-script to thank the fans of Indianapolis, and cried while doing so.

Whoever Peyton Manning plays for next is irrelevant. Number 18 will forever be remembered as the man who built the city of Indianapolis, and moved the Colts from infamous (after the midnight mutiny move from Baltimore to Indy) to famous in the court of public opinion. Just as Brett Favre will be remembered by his days in Green Bay and Joe Montana in San Francisco, Manning will be remembered as a Colt and nothing else.

What comes next in his career is simply dessert for the pro football faithful.

What do we know about his current situation?

We know Peyton wants to stay in the AFC. That narrows it down to the Denver Broncos (who he visited with on Friday), Kansas City Chiefs, and Miami Dolphins. The Jets just re-signed Mark Sanchez through 2016, so they are convincingly out of the horse race.

Peyton Manning doesn't like playing outdoors unless it's somewhere warm. Advantage Miami. Manning doesn't like the media scrutiny and in the past has praised small market teams. Advantage Kansas City.

We also know that Peyton Manning likes to play in a dome and hasn't ruled out the NFC. So for kicks and giggles, let's take a look at the NFC. The Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals are the only viable teams I could see Manning play for given their cap room and quarterback situation. Jim Harbaugh has already stated that the 49ers are set at quarterback, as they're working on a deal with Alex Smith and have the 2011 second-rounder Colin Kaepernick on the bench.

Both Seattle and Arizona have similar offenses, but I'd give the edge to the Cardinals. They play in a field-of-choice where weather is a non-issue on stormy days due to a retractable roof. They also have the small market level of obscurity that might be alluring to Manning.

And how about number fifteen? Arizona happens to have one of the top five wing men in football with Larry Fitzgerald. Manning has had an ace receiver on every team he has played. There is no reason why he shouldn't expect to have one this time around.

Given everything situation on every team I have studied since Manning was released, I'd give the advantage to the Arizona Cardinals for three reasons:
1. Elite wide receiver target
2. Small market obscurity; little media scrutiny
3. University of Phoenix Stadium

The Cards have the cap room to do it and the history of success with veteran quarterbacks; see "Kurt Warner."

Peyton Manning might be the best quarterback of the modern era. He is certainly in the top two. He will go to a situation that is best for his wife, his family, and himself. And why not?

Can you really make the argument he hasn't deserved it?

QB options: ranking the top available QBs

by Bill Young

For those QB needy teams, what are your ten best options this offseason?

#1: Draft/trade for Andrew Luck: The colts lost so many games that they were rewarded with one of the most NFL-ready QBs in years. He has all the skills a QB needs in the new pass-happy league. He has arm strength, vision, accuracy, preparation, and underrated speed which can enable him to make plays on the run. Overall, if an organization needed a franchise quarterback to build a team around, this would be the safest pick.
#2: Sign Alex Smith: Alex Smith has adjusted to numerous offensive coordinators throughout his career while learning to play efficiently in the windy Candlestick Park. His experience and solid decision making would allow offensive coordinators more flexibility when designing plays. These attributes along with the career best numbers he posted last season indicate that now is the time to sign Alex Smith.
#3: Sign Matt Flynn: Matt Flynn has been the backup to Aaron Rodgers the past few seasons. Flynn has the leadership and smarts along with the preparation to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. He has limited experience but that experience has been encouraging, setting Packers records in the last game of the season vs the Lions and performing well against the Patriots a season before.
#4: Draft/Trade for Robert Griffin III: Robert Griffin III has the most tremendous upside of anyone on this list. However, there are questions about the defenses he has faced as well as his height in terms of passing in the pocket. That said, he has tremendous speed and possesses a strong and accurate arm. Right now he is not the top QB available, but in a few years, he could be the best QB on the list.
#5: Sign Jason Campbell: Although an injury last season landed him on IR, Jason Campbell has developed into an efficient quarterback, leading the Raiders to a promising start before Carson Palmer and others fumbled the rest of the season away. Campbell can make all the throws. His only weakness seems to be knowing when to take shots down the field. His toughness and accuracy have improved greatly throughout his career making him a great option for a team to improve immediately at the QB position.
#6: Sign Brian Hoyer: Brian Hoyer has spent the last few seasons under the tutelage of Bill Belichick and has practiced along side Tom Brady. He has experienced the preparation needed to perform at a high level week in and week out. He has a strong arm and possesses solid leadership skills.
#7: Sign Kyle Orton: He still has a good arm and is mentally tough. He has the talent to make all of the throws but is inconsistent. The decision making is not always a strength but he can lead a team back to respectability.
#8: Sign Chad Pennington: He is the most accurate passer the NFL has seen. He prepares for games well and is a good leader. The downside is the lack of arm strength and tendency for injury.
#9: Sign Chad Henne: Henne has shown remarkable improvement since taking over for Chad Pennington a couple of years ago. His injury early last year overshadowed his progress. He shows great composure in difficult game situations. He can make difficult throws look easy at times but lacks the consistency of a top level quarterback. He has unfortunately shown the tendency to hold onto the ball too long which can result in sacks, fumbles, interceptions and potentially injury.
#10: Draft Kellen Moore: The Boise State product has shown outstanding leadership and accuracy throughout his collegiate career. His preparation allows his receivers to be in the best position at all times. He can anticipate throws and is able to make most NFL throws consistently. The only question marks surrounding Moore are height and arm strength. As others have shown, if you can find passing windows and are smart enough to anticipate throws, height and arm strength questions will become a distant memory. Given Moore's preparation and high football IQ, I wouldn't bet against Moore becoming a decent starting quarterback in the NFL.

Dishonorable Mention: Sign Rex Grossman: If you want your defense to bail you out of every game or turn the ball over at least twice every game, sign Rex Grossman. He may have the talent to make all the throws, but he always makes mistakes that haunt your team. Do not fall into the trap that other teams have fallen into. Do not believe that your coaching staff is better than everyone else's coaching staffs. It is not worth the headache that is Rex Grossman.

Why the Patriots Need Mike Wallace

The New England Patriots got the majority of their offense through tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Combined, Gronkwoski (90 receptions, 1,327 yards, 17 TDs) and Hernandez (79 receptions, 910 yards, 7 TDs) had a statline of 169/2,237/24. Wes Welker also added a not-too-shabby NFL-leading 122 receptions with an NFL-runner-up 1,569 yards, and a complimentary nine touchdowns to boot.

Add Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis' 11 rushing touchdowns to the mix and you have yourself a pretty balanced attack, especially once the Patriots get into the redzone.

Given the fact that New England's aerial assault is one of the top three in football year after year, why would they possibly want to improve the talent already on their roster?

The answer is pretty simple, once you look at it. The Patriots need a deep threat to overcome matchup deficiencies.

The three most effective defenses against New England offense during the 2011 regular season and 2012 postseason were Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and the East Rutherford Giants in the Super Bowl. These defenses did two things that effectively knocked Patriots quarterback Tom Brady off of his dink-and-dump possession game: covered the intermediate routes and effectively rushed the passer.

Tom Brady's 2007 record-breaking performance will go down as one of the best, if not the best, season by a quarterback in NFL history. Brady had 50 passing touchdowns (an NFL record), won the MVP award, and brought the Patriots to the first 16-0 regular season in NFL history. The key to get back this unprecedented success is to get back to the 2007 template.

The Patriots need Pittsburgh's Mike Wallace to make this happen.

The Steelers slapped the franchise tag on Wallace on Monday before the 4 p.m. deadline that will take a first round draft pick for another team to sign the 25-year old wideout. Wallace finished 2011 with 1,182 yards and eight touchdowns, but has led the NFL in yards per catch since he entered the league in 2009 (18.8 YPC). Mind you, his numbers were "down" a bit last year given the inconsistency at quarterback with Pittsburgh shuffling between an injured Ben Roethlisberger and Fill-in B.

Regardless, He is the epitome of a deep threat.

The Patriots have the luxury of owning the 27th (from New Orleans) and 31st pick in the 2012 NFL Draft plus two second round draft picks. Wallace would likely demand a four-year deal worth around $32-35 million/year plus incentives with $18-20 million guaranteed.

Conventional wisdom says that the Patriots will not try to acquire Wallace or even a blue chip free agent receiver like San Diego's Vincent Jackson or New Orleans' Marques Colston, especially since they just tagged Welker to a $9.5 million contract in 2012. It is well known that the Patriots brass doesn't like to tie up that much money in cap space.

If New England does go against the grain of their trends and make a move to acquire one of the top deep threats in the NFL, it will give them plenty of time to address the porous defense in the Draft with three picks in the first two rounds.

Now to scheme.

Adding Wallace would free up Welker and Hernandez underneath, and open up Chad Ochocinco (who is still under contract through 2012) on the flanks. Plus, constantly threatening with two of the NFL's top receivers on the field at the same time might (and I stress might) open up the running game.

In essence, Wallace would become the new Randy Moss, Ochocinco the new Donte' Stallworth, and Welker the new...well, you get where I'm going with this.

Tom Brady will turn 35 next season. It's time for New England to go, excuse the expression, balls out to win another Super Bowl before Brady makes the trip to Canton.

The next few years might be his last chance.

FINAL MOCK DRAFT

NFL Insider Today Final Mock Draft

1. Carolina Panthers – QB Cam Newton, Auburn

A new head coach includes a new direction for the Carolina Panthers. Jimmy Clausen simply did not show enough to warrant a second chance.
Previous Pick: DE De’Quan Bowers, Clemson


2. Denver Broncos – DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama
Denver’s defense will need to plug the middle, something they didn’t do last year, and compliment to Elvis Dumervil if they hope to stay in ballgames.
Previous Pick: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn


3. Buffalo Bills – OLB Von Miller, Texas A&M
Though the popular selection here is the top quarterback available, Buffalo’s top priority is inciting high pressure in a division that features two of the most highly regarded quarterbacks in the league.
Previous Pick: QB Cam Newton, Auburn


4. Cincinnati Bengals – WR AJ Green, Georgia
With Chad Ochocinco (or is it back to Johnson?) publically asking for a trade and Terrell Owens set to hit free agency, taking the Draft’s best available set of hands is Cincy’s top priority.
Previous Pick: WR AJ Green, Georgia


5. Arizona Cardinals – CB Patrick Peterson, LSU
Though taking a quarterback is an enticing option, head coach Ken Wisenhut is bent on adding a playmaker to the defense after the beating it took a year ago.
Previous Pick: QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri


6. Cleveland Browns – DT Nick Fairley, Auburn
With Shaun Rogers recently released, Cleveland needs to add a body in the middle of their defensive line. They were not able to stop the run consistently in 2010 which led to the firing of Mike Singletary, and that need should be addressed here.
Previous Pick: DE Robert Quinn, North Carolina


7. San Francisco 49ers – DE De’Quan Bowers, Clemson
San Francisco receives a gift at the seven slot with the Draft’s top defensive end. Though injury is a concern for Bowers, he is truly a gift if he can stay healthy.
Previous Pick: DT Marcel Dareus, Alabama


8. Tennessee Titans – QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
With Vince Young getting the axe, Kerry Collins seems the unlikely choice as the long-term option at quarterback for Tennessee.
Previous Pick: DT Corey Liuget, Illinois


9. Dallas Cowboys – OT Tyron Smith, USC
Though Jerry Jones has expressed interest in trading down, Dallas will select the top available tackle to prevent another injury to Tony Romo if they stand pat.
Previous Pick: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU


10. Washington Redskins – DE Robert Quinn, UNC
Washington is another team that could be in the market for accumulating picks by trading down, but will take the best available player if they stand pat.
Previous Pick: OLB Von Miller, Texas A&M


11. Houston Texans – CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska
Houston was beat too many times by the deep ball last year. With Brian Cushing returning for a full season, shoring up the secondary and adding talent opposite Kareem Jackson is a top priority for the gaping Texans defense.
Previous Pick: CB Prince Amakamura


12. Minnesota Vikings – QB Jake Locker, Washington
Leslie Fraser was appointed to the full-time head coaching job in Minnesota and will need to replace Brett Favre immediately. Joe Webb is not the answer and Fraser could take the potential top quarterback from 2010 if he had declared.
Previous Pick: DE Adrian Clayborne, Iowa


13. Detroit Lions – OT Nate Solder, Colorado
Detroit could either trade up to get a top corner, or trade down to accumulate picks. However, if they do not find a suitor look for a replacement for Gosder Cherilus, the 2008 Draft bust.
Previous Pick: CB Jimmy Smith, Colorado


14. St. Louis Rams – WR Julio Jones, Alabama
Sam Bradford and Josh McDaniels are hungry for some toys in an offense that featured a battered Steven Jackson and no deep threat to speak of.
Previous Pick: WR Julio Jones, Alabama


15. Miami Dolphins – RB Mark Ingram, Alabama
Both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are free agents and Tony Sparano is on the hot seat. Mark Ingram could be both a reach and a fit at the same time.
Previous Pick: RB Mark Ingram, Alabama


16. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue
Too many reports from the Florida presses have linked the leaky Jaguars front office to Ryan Kerrigan to ignore.
Previous Pick: DE Aldon Smith, Missouri


17. New England Patriots (from Oakland) – DE/OLB Aldon Smith
Bill Belichick has neglected to add a significant pass rusher since the glory days of Willie McGinest and Mike Vrabel. Trading up to take Robert Quinn at nine or ten is also an option with six picks in the first three rounds.
Previous Pick: DE Cameron Jordan, California


18. San Diego Chargers – DE Cameron Jordan, California
With Shawn Merriman in Buffalo and the days of Rodney Harrison and Junior Seau long gone, it is time for Norv Turner to focus this draft on retooling the Chargers defense; his job might depend on it.
Previous Pick: OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA


19. New York Giants – C/G Mike Pouncey, Florida
Eli Manning took a beating last year and Ahmad Bradshaw feared driving through the middle. Taking the best available offensive lineman is crucial for a coach on the hot seat.
Previous Pick: OT Nate Solder, Colorado


20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – CB Jimmy Smith, Colorado
Ronde Barber isn’t getting any younger and the secondary isn’t getting any better to conceal his (lack of) youth.
Previous Pick: DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue


21. Kansas City Chiefs – OLB Justin Houston, Georgia
The Chiefs are looking for the heir to Mike Vrabel, whose days seem to be numbered in the NFL (but rather plentiful on network television talking about the league…)
Previous Pick: DT Stephen Paea, Oregon State


22. Indianapolis Colts – OT Anthony Costanzo, Boston College
Peyton Manning’s streak of four games with eleven interceptions was a wakeup call for head coach Jim Caldwell to do something about his aging offensive line (to protect his aging quarterback).
Previous Pick: OT Tyron Smith, USC


23. Philadelphia Eagles – DE Muhammad Wilkerson, Temple
The Eagles drafted Brandon Graham a year ago and will continue to add size and strength on this defense until Andy Reid gets back to the Promised Land.
Previous Pick: S Rahim Moore, UCLA


24. New Orleans Saints – OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA
With the loss of Scott Fujita a year ago, the Saints will need to retool their offense starting with an athletic linebacker who can run sideline to sideline.
Previous Pick: DE JJ Watt, Wisconsin


25. Seattle Seahawks – DT Stephen Paea, Oregon State
Though a quarterback could be in store later in the Draft, Pete Carroll first needs to address his defensive line before replacing a top ten quarterback.
Previous Pick: OT Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin


26. Baltimore Ravens – CB Brandon Harris, Miami (FL)
John Harbaugh knows too much about his defense to ignore the lack of true depth at cornerback his team has.
Previous Pick: CB Aaron Williams, Texas


27. Atlanta Falcons – DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa
Though Kyle Rudolph could still be in the mix, adding a pass rusher or gap-closer is crucial after what Mike Smith witnessed in the NFC playoffs last season.
Previous Pick: TE Kyle Rudolph, Notre Dame


28. New England Patriots – DE Cameron Heyward, Ohio State
With Ty Warren coming back from injury, the Pats now have a chance to add a 5-technique defensive end to play opposite of him and next to Vince Wilfork. An offensive guard or tackle could also be in the mix as well.
Previous Pick: OLB Justin Houston, Georgia


29. Chicago Bears – OT Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin
Though Lovie Smith loves to draft defensive players (or trade away drafts altogether), he will need to protect the investment he made in Jay Cutler two off-seasons ago.
Previous Pick: OT Anthony Constanzo, Boston College

30. New York Jets – DT Corey Liuget, Illinois
Though replacing Vernon Gholston is on the agenda, adding someone to shore up the defensive line is a bigger need for Rex Ryan’s defense.
Previous Pick: DE Cameron Heyward, Ohio State


31. Pittsburgh Steelers – CB Aaron Williams, Texas
Pittsburgh’s secondary was exposed during two critical weeks last season: Week Ten on national television against the Patriots, and the Super Bowl against the Packers.
Previous Pick: G Mike Pouncey, Florida


32. Green Bay Packers – OT Derek Sherrod, Mississippi State
Protecting the concussion-prone Aaron Rodgers’ blind side is just as important as winning in the playoffs…those two often coincide with each other.
Previous Pick: DE Muhammad Wilkerson, Temple


Written by: Jimmy King
Picks taken by: Jimmy King and Bill Young

Writers' Big Board, Post-Combine

WRITERS' BIG BOARD, POST-COMBINE

Name, Position, College, Rank (on a scale of 1-10)


Jimmy King's Big Board

1. Von Miller, OLB Texas A&M - 10/10
Miller has unbelievable speed, quickness, and tenacity as a pass-rusher. Could play in either a 3-4 or 4-3. Only weakness is size.

2. Robert Quinn, DE North Carolina - 9.9/10
Quinn could play for virtually an team in football as an outside linebacker in a 3-4 or a defensive end in a 4-3 with a 6'4'' 260 pound build. Closest comparison is to Juius Peppers.

3. De'Quan Bowers, DE Clemson - 9.8/10
Bowers is the safest pick at defensive end in the draft. Big enough to play a 3 or 5-technique in any scheme as a tremendous pass-rusher or run-stuffer.

4. Patrick Peterson, CB LSU - 9.8/10
With flexibility being the one question mark on Peterson's resume, there is no question he is the most athletic and talented defensive back this year.

5. Nick Fairley, DT Auburn - 9.7/10
Despite his 305+ pound frame, Fairley still ran a sub-5.0 40-meter dash and was extremely productive as a disruptor in the middle for Auburn.

6. AJ Green, WR Georgia - 9.7/10
Green's height and speed pits him as the best deep threat in this year's draft. Green numbers suffered very little (848 yards, 9 TDs) last year despite constantly demanding double teams.

7. Blaine Gabbert, QB Missouri - 9.5/10
Gabbert has the size, accuracy, and strength and is widely considered to be the prototypical NFL quarterback. The only question mark on Gabbert is his hairstyle.

8. Marcell Dareus, DT Alabama - 9.5/10
Dareus is drawing comparisons to Warren Sapp in term so of his size and power as a run-stuffer and force in the middle. Dareus is this year's Gerald McCoy.

9. Prince Amukamura, CB Nebraska - 9.5/10
Nndamukong Suh has proclaimed Amukamara as the best cover corner in this year's draft. His coverage abilities closely resemble those of Devin McCourty; has great instincts and controllable speed.

10. Nate Solder, OT Colorado - 9.4/10
Solder is an absolute tank. At 6'8'' 315 pounds, Solder will be the staple to any offensive line for at least ten years; has great feet and decent mobility.

11. Julio Jones, WR Alabama - 9.4/10
Jones ran a 4.39 40-yard dash at the Scouting Combine on a fractured foot; has incredible toughness and is able to separate. Route running is a question mark, but is a legitimate vertical threat.

12. Jimmy Smith, CB Colorado - 9.3/10
Jimmy Smith is the closest thing to Nnamdi Asomough I can find among this year's secondary prospects; very smooth and has good size. Only problem is off the field issues with a history of DUIs and drug charges.

13. Adrian Clayborn, DE Iowa - 9.2/10
Clayborn is this year's best run-stuffing defensive end. Bears a striking resemblance to Cameron Jordan in measurables, but Clayborn is pure power whereas Jordan is finesse.

14. Ryan Kerrigan, DE/OLB Purdue - 9.1/10
The buzzword surrounding Kerrigan's play is that his "motor" never stops. He is a tenacious pass-rusher and teammates say his work ethic and leadership is contagious.

15. Mark Ingram, RB Alabama - 9.0/10
What would a Big Board be without the year's top running back? Ingram is a big runner who has speed and can make yards out of nothing; built like Steven Jackson.

16. Cameron Newton, QB Auburn - 9.0/10
The 2010 Heisman Trophy winner has undeniable talent, however his performance at the Combine did not help his cause as accuracy was an issue. Teams will have to decide if they are willing to accept his uncertain past.

17. Corey Liuget, DT Illinois - 8.9/10
Liuget is an athletic tackle that compares nicely to Casey Hampton; has room to gain weight to be a disruptive nose tackle in a 3-4.

18. Tyron Smith, OT USC - 8.9/10
Despite the fact that Smith played right tackle during his career at USC, he has the durability to play either side in the NFL. His only downside is height at 6'5.''

19. Aldon Smith, DE/OLB Missouri - 8.8/10
Smith's stock has improved with a solid combine performance. Despite the fact that his had his hand on the ground during his career at Missouri, Smith has admitted to training as a 3-4 outside linebacker.

20. Akeem Ayers, OLB UCLA - 8.7/10
Ayers is the second most talented pure outside linebacker in this year's draft. His combine performance neither improved or hurt his draft stock; Ayers is a good pass-rusher and above average in dropback situations.

Honorable Mentions:
Ryan Mallet, QB Arkansas
JJ Watt, DE Wisconsin
Cameron Jordan, DE California
Justin Houston, OLB Georgia
Justin Baldwin, WR Pittsburgh

Sleepers:
Brooks Reed, DE/OLB Arizona
Jonathan Baldwin, WR Pittsburgh
Ryan Mallett, QB Arkansas
Martez Wilson, OLB Illinois
Luke Stocker, TE Tennessee


Tony Mosesso's Big Board

1) Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU – 9.9/10
Can’t miss here. Great size and speed, he will be an asset to any NFL team.

2) Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson – 9.9/10
He led the NCAA in sacks and tackles for loss last year. Bowers will be able to recreate much of what he did in his college career.

3) Von Miller, DE/OLB, Texas A&M – 9.9/10
He’s a flexible player that can play both positions well. His instincts and intangibles are more astounding than his numbers.

4) A.J. Green, WR, Georgia – 9.8/10
Green’s talent can be measured pretty simply. When he was under suspension for Georgia, the Bulldogs’ offense was anemic. When he returned, it was dynamic. He’s a game changer.

5) Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina – 9.6/10
All that needs to be said is Julius Peppers 2.0. Oh, they went to the same school too.

6) Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn – 9.6/10
Putting Fairley at 6 isn’t an insult – I just think there’s too much stock being put into one game. He’s great, but not #1 pick material. Anyway, Fairley is very quick off of the ball and gets to the backfield with relative ease.

7) Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama – 9.5/10
I don’t think the line between Dareus and Fairley is as thick as others. Dareus has been a consistent contributor and will instantly plug up the middle of any team’s defensive line.

8) Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska – 9.5/10
He’s one of those guys that will be a great defender without putting up numbers – simply because his side won’t be thrown to (as evidenced by his Big 12 defensive POY award last year, while recording zero interceptions).

9) Julio Jones, WR, Alabama – 9.5/10
An amazing combination of size and speed, he’d be a great fit on a team in need of a game breaking WR.

10) Nate Solder, OT, Colorado – 9.4/10
He doesn’t get beat and has a fantastic football mind. He’s got good side but still maintains the ability to move quickly and with agility.

11) Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado – 9.4/10
Two straight Buffalo, Smith could be the sneakiest CB to take. Similar production as the heralded Peterson and Amukamara, but 10 spots later. Fiscally sound.

12) Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue – 9.3/10
He’s quick and is a great pass rusher. Even with the plethora of great DEs going in the first round, Kerrigan could be one of the first.

13) Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois – 9.3/10
The best DT that doesn’t get talked about. He’s got wild athleticism and is disruptive to offenses – great value pick.

14) Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin – 9.2/10
Could be my Big 10 affiliation, but Carimi is a fantastic blocker that I feel could make a huge impact on any offensive line.

15) Tyron Smith, OT, USC – 9.2/10
He’s another Offensive Lineman with quickness and agility, and he isn’t far from surpassing Carimi. He can get to the second level and block any position.

16) Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA – 9.2/10
Great fit for a 3-4 defense, just needs to be quicker in play diagnostics to get to the ball carrier quicker.

17) Mike Pouncey, C, Florida – 9.1/10
Like brother Maurkice, this kid could be anchoring the middle of an offensive line sooner rather than later.

18) Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa – 9.0/10
Clayborn showed dominating abilities in college and has the ability to stop the run and rush the pass – now he needs to stay healthy.

19) Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri – 8.9/10
Gabbert is getting a value boost for being the best QB available in a weak QB class, but he didn’t show he has top 5 value in his last year in college. Still, he has a solid football IQ and can make almost any throw.

20) Rahim Moore, S, UCLA – 8.9/10
Many are sleeping on him, but I think he has the ability to be an impact player on the defensive side of the ball. He’s very durable and has great open field ability as well as pass coverage ability.

Honorable Mentions:
Mark Ingram, RB Alabama
J.J. Watt, DE Wisconsin
Aldon Smith, DE Missouri
Justin Houston, OLB Georgia
Cameron Jordan, DE California

Sleepers:
Shane Vereen, RB California
Greg Jones, ILB Michigan State
Jerrel Jernigan, WR Troy
Chimdi Chekwa, CB Ohio State
Stephen Schilling, OG Michigan


Bill Young's Big Board

1) Von Miller, DE/OLB, Texas A&M--9.9/10

The strength to stop a running back without forward momentum and the speed to cover an NFL TE. Not just ready to play--ready to dominate.

2) Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina--9.8/10
His athletic ability has reminded scouts of the skills of a young Julius Peppers.

3) Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson--9.8/10
The only concern with him is the recent injury. Otherwise he has proven himself to be able to lift the play of an entire defensive unit on his own.

4) Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU--9.7/10
A versatile player that can play any position in the secondary. His speed makes him dynamic enough to return kicks and recover even against the fastest of wide receivers.

5) Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama--9.6/10
A player who performed admirably even with injuries in the SEC. Players who can overcome adversity are valuable especially with this talent level.

6) Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn--9.5/10
His speed was otherworldly during the college season. Unfortunately he came to the combine on the heavy side.

7) AJ Green, WR, Georgia--9.4/10
He was able to transform Georgia's offense as soon as he returned. He could be the next Calvin Johnson.

8) Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska--9.4/10
Opposing offenses simply did not throw his way out of respect for his close coverage.

9) Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri--9.3/10
A tough-minded QB who can make any throw. His interview impressed scouts as did his ability to read defenses.

10) Julio Jones, WR, Alabama--9.3/10
He impressed everyone at the combine with his ability to overcome pain and perform at a high level. The downside--he seems to get injured a lot.

11) Nate Solder, OT, Colorado--9.3/10
The best offensive tackle in the draft. His agility and strength set him apart from other offensive lineman.

12) Adrian Clayborne, DE, Iowa--9.2/10
The defensive end from Iowa showed an ability to dominate on both running and passing situations. The question is if he can maintain his intensity and health over time.

13) Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue--9.2/10
His workout impressed everyone at the combine. His speed makes his pass rush from the edge an offensive tackle's nightmare.

14) Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado--9.1/10
His numbers are similar to Amukamara's. Questions that remain are about his character and if Colorado's other CB were so bad that no one threw at him.

15) Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois--9.1/10
A disruptive defensive tackle that can stuff the run.

16) Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA--9.1/10
A linebacker who perfectly fits a 3-4 scheme. His tutelage under Rick Neuheisel ensures that he will be ready to tackle complicated defensive schemes in the NFL.

17) Tyron Smith, OT, USC--9.0/10
An offensive tackle who can play anywhere and reach the second level when blocking. He has sneaky speed which will be an asset for any team he goes to.

18) J.J Watt, DE, Wisconsin--9.0/10
An impressive run stopping force that can create a good pass-rush on 3rd down.

19) Cameron Jordan, DE, California--8.9/10
Pass rushing abilities are solid. He needs to show more discipline at the next level in the running game.

20) Mike Pouncey, C, Florida--8.9/10
The versatility he showed at Florida has greatly added to his value. If he plays a position other than center in the NFL, he will react faster after the snap than before. His speed and strength are good but dealing with SEC defenses has given him the necessary experiences for an NFL ready offensive lineman.

Honorable Mentions:
Rahim Moore, S UCLA
Gabe Carimi, OT Wisconsin
Aldon Smith, DE Missouri
Stephen Paea, DT Oregon State
Anthony Castonzo, OT Boston College

Sleepers:
Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State
Dontay Moch, OLB, Nevada
Shane Vereen, RB, California
Ras-I Dowling, CB, UVA
Mark Herzlich, OLB, Boston College


*Source for statistics: ESPN.com