Sophomore Break-out or Busts

A sarcastic and annoyingly ridiculous look at which players are going to break out in their sophomore year in the NFL, and which ones might flame out...

Every year, drafted and undrafted rookies achieve or overachieve. Duh. Call it a blanket statement or a cliche, but it needs to be said to give this post some sort of premise. Sometimes first year players pull a Cam Newton and just absolutely kill it in year one. Other times they pull a Jake Locker and hardly see the field despite being drafted in the top ten.
Here are five second-year players ready to break out in their second year after a disappointing rookie campaign, and five who are going to disappoint yet again, potentially moving them to bust status.

READY TO BREAK OUT

DT Nick Fairley, Detroit Lions
Round 1, Pick 13
There is little doubt that Fairley can improve on his premiere season which was riddled with injuries. He's a fairly good pass-rusher, a fairly good run-stopper, and a fairly explosive force in the middle of the line...when he's fairly healthy; and by "fairly" I mean he's damn good...when fairly healthy. Kill Nick Fairley's last name in an analytical blog post? Check! If the former Auburn Tiger can avoid Jahvid Best syndrome, he could become one of the best more effective linemen for defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham.

LT Nate Solder, New England Patriots
Round 1, Pick 17
Current Pats left tackle Matt Light is on the verge of retiring. In fact, he could be retired right now but the media wouldn't know about if The Hoodie has anything to say about the matter. Solder is a physical behemoth. He's 6-foot-8, a former tight end at Colorado, and spent a year behind a staple on the NFL All-Pro team. Solder clearly has the durability and football know-how to hang with the best in the NFL. Given the Bills' new toy on defense (All-Pro defensive end Mario Williams), Solder is going to have to put his big boy pants on at least twice this year when the Pats play Buffalo.


CB Prince Amukamara, New Jersey New York Giants
Round 1, Pick 19
The Prince's season was shortened due to injury. With the loss of Aaron Ross to the Jacksonville Jaguars, it is becoming more and more likely that the nineteenth overall pick of last year's draft will have an important role in keeping balls out of the hands of receivers (that's what she said) from 2012 onward until his rookie deal is over.

WR Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers
Round 2, Pick 64
Donald Driver's retirement has thrust Mr. Cobb into Driver's old position as the man opposite Greg Jennings on the Packers' default offensive set. Some analysts experts anonymous bloggers people slated Cobb as a late first round pick out of Kentucky to these very Packers, but he wound up in Gang Green a short while thereafter after all. Look for Cobb to have a year similar to Nate Burleson, however don't look for Cobb to say ridiculous Burleson-esque things like "I'm the black Wes Welker."

LB Kelvin Sheppard, Buffalo Bills
Round 3, Pick 68
I alluded to a new toy in Buffalo in the form of Mario Williams (HOLY SHIT $H!T!!! Mario...Mario Brothers...video games..."toy"...I'm a freakin' bored college kid swami!). Having Mario Williams on one end, former third overall draft pick Marcell Dareus in the middle, and Dwan Edwards on the other end, Sheppard has the capacity to pull his best Jon Beason impression and get 150 tackles this year. I only say this because I don't see the Bills doing much on offense to give them the ball for more than 25 minutes a game. Sheppard will have to be a tremendous tackler given how often the Bills "D" will see the field.



READY TO BUST CAP (space)

QB Blaine Gabbert, Jacksonville Jaguars
Round 1, Pick 10
I'll give you three reasons why Blaine Gabbert will not make it in the NFL:
1. He plays for Jacksonville.
2. He plays for Jacksonville and he's not MJD.
3. He plays for Jacksonville and...well, he plays for Jacksonville..

CB Jimmy Smith, Baltimore Ravens
Round 1, Pick 27
If you paid any attention to Jimmy Smith's career in Colorado, or even read anything about him in the pre-draft process last year, you'd know that Smith has a history of drug-related off-the-field issues. Though this has nothing to do with the fact that Smith was picked on last year as a rookie in the secondary with Baltimore a year ago, I may or may not be still bitter about him picking Tom Brady in the AFC Championship last year. With that said, Smith needs to become a consistent staple in the Ravens secondary in order to earn a full-time spot on the field. Two interceptions in one season is not going to cut it for a first-round corner.


RB Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints
Round 1, Pick 28
The Saints are cleary in a world of hurt. Head coach Sean Payton is gone for the year to suspension. Drew Brees is unhappy with his contract. And more Mark Ingram related, Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas offer more versatility than the former Heisman Trophy winner. The age of Terrell Davis running backs is over. Ingram will settle nicely into the third spot in the Saints' depth chart.

QB Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers
Round 2, Pick 36
It's always tough to be drafted as a quarterback in the first two rounds given the expectations young arms are burdened with in the first few years of their careers in the modern NFL era. It didn't help that Alex Smith had a year worthy of the Comeback Player of the Year award. It also didn't help Kaepernick's case that the man picked right before him (Andy Dalton, Bengals) started Week 1, led his team to the playoffs, and went to a Pro Bowl. Kaepernick needs Alex Smith to blow out his knee (or worse) in Training Camp to get any shot at playing this year.

DE Da'Quan Bowers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Round 2, Pick 51
What a fall Bowers had from the NCAA regular season in 2010 to being considered as a number one overall pick, then having to have surgery because of a gay porn bone-on-bone condition in his knee. Bowers is considered the Sergio Kindle of the 2011 NFL Draft (Kindle was a consensus top fifteen pick in the 2010 Draft but dropped to the second round due to imminent microfracture surgery). I can't see Bowers getting healthy enough with 80-year old knees on a 22-year old body.

Exeunt

Pre-Free Agency Primer

Here are your predictions for the top six players available at each position in the 2012 class of free agents. Feel free to criticize, agree with, and/or give me your predictions in the comments below.

Quarterbacks

1. Peyton Manning (Colts)
Prediction: Arizona Cardinals
I'll refer to a prior post of mine that detailed why Manning is right for Arizona and Arizona is right for Peyton Manning: Elite wide receiver target, small market obscurity; little media scrutiny, University of Phoenix Stadium and its lovely, convenient dome.


2. Jason Campbell (Raiders)
Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars
Though the New Jersey Jets could be in play here, the Jags have a need at quarterback with only Blaine Gabbert signed at the moment. Campbell would provide cheap, good veteran competition in training camp and someone who Gabbert could potentially learn behind for a year. In other words, let Campbell take the majority of the hits for a year or two while the new front office builds its offense from the ground up.

3. Kyle Orton (Broncos)
Prediction: Seattle Seahawks
Since Denver is a key player in the Peyton Manning sweepstakes, I will assume that Orton will be moved to a low-end team in rebuilding mode with a chance to start. Seattle seems to be fading fast as a player for Peyton Manning.

Players that will stay with their respective teams:
Alex Smith (49ers)
Matt Flynn (Packers)
Brian Hoyer (Patriots)


Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

1. Vincent Jackson (Chargers)
Prediction: Washington Redskins
The Skins have a tremendous amount of cap space and a significant need to get talent on offense. Part of this is because Mike Shanahan doesn't have a first round draft pick until 2015. RG3 plus Jackson and Santana Moss would provide this team with the means to make a splash in the NFC East.

2. Reggie Wayne (Colts)
Prediction: Wherever Peyton Manning goes
See "Wherever Peyton Manning goes."

3. Mike Wallace (Restricted, First Round Tender - Steelers)
Prediction: Chicago Bears
Da Bears have already expressed interest in Vincent Jackson, however they'll have a better chance at Wallace given their cap room and precedent of giving away first round picks for overrated players.

4. Brandon Lloyd (Rams)
Prediction: New England Patriots
Lloyd established himself as one of Josh McDaniels' favorite "toys" in St. Louis, and one of Sam Bradford's favorite target. The Patriots lacked a legitimate vertical threat in 2011. Lloyd will help remedy that in 2012.

Players that will remain with their current teams:
Marques Colston (Saints)
Laurent Robinson (Cowboys)


Running Backs

1. Cedric Benson (Bengals)
Prediction: Washington Redskins
Benson is a great between-the-tackles back who is durable. Washington lacks a great offensive line and needs help adding depth with the oft-injured Ryan Torrain.

2. Michael Bush (Raiders)
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals
Cincy is losing Benson, but they have enough cap space to make room for a 1,000-yard rusher in Michael Bush. Look for the Bengals to add a legitimate ground threat to compliment Andy Dalton/AJ Green.

Players that will remain with their current teams:
Peyton Hillis (Browns)
Mike Tolbert (Chargers)
Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis (Patriots)
Thomas Jones (Chiefs)

Offensive Linemen

Since this position is just a complete free agency cluster-you-know-what, I'm going to pass on predictions...with the exception of disappointing Lions fans by predicting Jeff Backus back on a two-year deal.


Defensive Linemen

1. Mario Williams (Texans)
Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles
Williams is at his best in a 4-3 system, however Philly has a huge need in their front seven. Given the fact that the Eagles front office could be desperate given the disappointment they experienced a season ago, I could see Andy Reid overspending for the best defensive lineman in this year's class.

2. John Abraham (Falcons)
Prediction: New Orleans Saints
Why the hell not? Put Abraham opposite of second-year defensive end Cameron Jordan and you have yourself a worthy defensive line, a problem spot in the Saint's defense.

3. Jason Jones (Titans)
Prediction: San Diego Chargers
Obviously the Chargers have a defensive problem. One of the best interior linemen in football should be a decent front seven remedy.

Players that will remain with their current teams:
Andre Carter (Patriots)
Shaun Rogers (Saints)
Cory Redding (Ravens)

Linebackers

1. Stephen Tulloch (Lions)
Prediction: Tampa Bay Bucs
The Lions won't be able to retain Tulloch given the contract he'll demand (and probably get). The Bucs need help in the second level on their front seven. It's a natural fit.

2. James Farrior (Steelers)
Prediction: New Jersey Giants
Farrior was cut for cap reasons and will likely only consider signing with a team with an established defense. The Giants make perfect sense.

Players that will remain with their current teams:
London Fletcher (Redskins)
Dan Connor (Panthers)
Curtis Lofton (Falcons)
DeAndre Levy (Restricted - Lions)


Defensive Backs

1. Carlos Rogers (49ers)
Prediction: Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are an up-and-coming NFC South team that need talent, especially on defense. The Rams could be an option if they do not take Morris Claiborne with the sixth overall pick in the 2012 Draft.

2. Cortland Finnegan (Titans)
Prediction: Detroit Lions
Finnegan embodies the attitude that Detroit just loves; the hard-working, hard-hitting corner will fit in with Nndamukong Suh and Louis Delmas as competitive SOBs who love to take their shots.

3. Marcus Trufant (Seahawks)
Prediction: Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings might lose third-year corner Chris Cook to drug-related off-the-field issues. The former second-rounder will be replaced by a veteran and talented defensive mainstay.

Players that will remain with their current teams:
Brandon Carr (Chiefs)
Eric Wright (Lions)
Will Allen (Dolphins)
Tracy Porter (Saints)

Ze End.

P.S. In a week, I'll re-visit these and see how wrong I was. Stay tuned.

Peyton Manning from a Different Perspective

As a fan of football and of the New England Patriots, I was sincerely blessed with the year-to-year friendly rivalry between Peyton Manning's Indianapolis Colts and Tom Brady's Pats. Their careers will be forever intertwined in the combined successes as the two best quarterbacks of the 21st Century; this is adamant and undisputed.

Both men have multiple MVP awards. Both men set the single-season passing touchdowns record. Both men have won at least one Super Bowl and have at least one Super Bowl MVP.

Both men have been criticized as regular-season quarterbacks only in one aspect of their career or another. Both men have missed an entire season to a fluke injury. Both have lost big games to the other.

Peyton Manning is a stand-up guy and a class act. My opinion of him was cemented on last Wednesday when he went off-script to thank the fans of Indianapolis, and cried while doing so.

Whoever Peyton Manning plays for next is irrelevant. Number 18 will forever be remembered as the man who built the city of Indianapolis, and moved the Colts from infamous (after the midnight mutiny move from Baltimore to Indy) to famous in the court of public opinion. Just as Brett Favre will be remembered by his days in Green Bay and Joe Montana in San Francisco, Manning will be remembered as a Colt and nothing else.

What comes next in his career is simply dessert for the pro football faithful.

What do we know about his current situation?

We know Peyton wants to stay in the AFC. That narrows it down to the Denver Broncos (who he visited with on Friday), Kansas City Chiefs, and Miami Dolphins. The Jets just re-signed Mark Sanchez through 2016, so they are convincingly out of the horse race.

Peyton Manning doesn't like playing outdoors unless it's somewhere warm. Advantage Miami. Manning doesn't like the media scrutiny and in the past has praised small market teams. Advantage Kansas City.

We also know that Peyton Manning likes to play in a dome and hasn't ruled out the NFC. So for kicks and giggles, let's take a look at the NFC. The Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals are the only viable teams I could see Manning play for given their cap room and quarterback situation. Jim Harbaugh has already stated that the 49ers are set at quarterback, as they're working on a deal with Alex Smith and have the 2011 second-rounder Colin Kaepernick on the bench.

Both Seattle and Arizona have similar offenses, but I'd give the edge to the Cardinals. They play in a field-of-choice where weather is a non-issue on stormy days due to a retractable roof. They also have the small market level of obscurity that might be alluring to Manning.

And how about number fifteen? Arizona happens to have one of the top five wing men in football with Larry Fitzgerald. Manning has had an ace receiver on every team he has played. There is no reason why he shouldn't expect to have one this time around.

Given everything situation on every team I have studied since Manning was released, I'd give the advantage to the Arizona Cardinals for three reasons:
1. Elite wide receiver target
2. Small market obscurity; little media scrutiny
3. University of Phoenix Stadium

The Cards have the cap room to do it and the history of success with veteran quarterbacks; see "Kurt Warner."

Peyton Manning might be the best quarterback of the modern era. He is certainly in the top two. He will go to a situation that is best for his wife, his family, and himself. And why not?

Can you really make the argument he hasn't deserved it?

QB options: ranking the top available QBs

by Bill Young

For those QB needy teams, what are your ten best options this offseason?

#1: Draft/trade for Andrew Luck: The colts lost so many games that they were rewarded with one of the most NFL-ready QBs in years. He has all the skills a QB needs in the new pass-happy league. He has arm strength, vision, accuracy, preparation, and underrated speed which can enable him to make plays on the run. Overall, if an organization needed a franchise quarterback to build a team around, this would be the safest pick.
#2: Sign Alex Smith: Alex Smith has adjusted to numerous offensive coordinators throughout his career while learning to play efficiently in the windy Candlestick Park. His experience and solid decision making would allow offensive coordinators more flexibility when designing plays. These attributes along with the career best numbers he posted last season indicate that now is the time to sign Alex Smith.
#3: Sign Matt Flynn: Matt Flynn has been the backup to Aaron Rodgers the past few seasons. Flynn has the leadership and smarts along with the preparation to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. He has limited experience but that experience has been encouraging, setting Packers records in the last game of the season vs the Lions and performing well against the Patriots a season before.
#4: Draft/Trade for Robert Griffin III: Robert Griffin III has the most tremendous upside of anyone on this list. However, there are questions about the defenses he has faced as well as his height in terms of passing in the pocket. That said, he has tremendous speed and possesses a strong and accurate arm. Right now he is not the top QB available, but in a few years, he could be the best QB on the list.
#5: Sign Jason Campbell: Although an injury last season landed him on IR, Jason Campbell has developed into an efficient quarterback, leading the Raiders to a promising start before Carson Palmer and others fumbled the rest of the season away. Campbell can make all the throws. His only weakness seems to be knowing when to take shots down the field. His toughness and accuracy have improved greatly throughout his career making him a great option for a team to improve immediately at the QB position.
#6: Sign Brian Hoyer: Brian Hoyer has spent the last few seasons under the tutelage of Bill Belichick and has practiced along side Tom Brady. He has experienced the preparation needed to perform at a high level week in and week out. He has a strong arm and possesses solid leadership skills.
#7: Sign Kyle Orton: He still has a good arm and is mentally tough. He has the talent to make all of the throws but is inconsistent. The decision making is not always a strength but he can lead a team back to respectability.
#8: Sign Chad Pennington: He is the most accurate passer the NFL has seen. He prepares for games well and is a good leader. The downside is the lack of arm strength and tendency for injury.
#9: Sign Chad Henne: Henne has shown remarkable improvement since taking over for Chad Pennington a couple of years ago. His injury early last year overshadowed his progress. He shows great composure in difficult game situations. He can make difficult throws look easy at times but lacks the consistency of a top level quarterback. He has unfortunately shown the tendency to hold onto the ball too long which can result in sacks, fumbles, interceptions and potentially injury.
#10: Draft Kellen Moore: The Boise State product has shown outstanding leadership and accuracy throughout his collegiate career. His preparation allows his receivers to be in the best position at all times. He can anticipate throws and is able to make most NFL throws consistently. The only question marks surrounding Moore are height and arm strength. As others have shown, if you can find passing windows and are smart enough to anticipate throws, height and arm strength questions will become a distant memory. Given Moore's preparation and high football IQ, I wouldn't bet against Moore becoming a decent starting quarterback in the NFL.

Dishonorable Mention: Sign Rex Grossman: If you want your defense to bail you out of every game or turn the ball over at least twice every game, sign Rex Grossman. He may have the talent to make all the throws, but he always makes mistakes that haunt your team. Do not fall into the trap that other teams have fallen into. Do not believe that your coaching staff is better than everyone else's coaching staffs. It is not worth the headache that is Rex Grossman.

Why the Patriots Need Mike Wallace

The New England Patriots got the majority of their offense through tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Combined, Gronkwoski (90 receptions, 1,327 yards, 17 TDs) and Hernandez (79 receptions, 910 yards, 7 TDs) had a statline of 169/2,237/24. Wes Welker also added a not-too-shabby NFL-leading 122 receptions with an NFL-runner-up 1,569 yards, and a complimentary nine touchdowns to boot.

Add Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis' 11 rushing touchdowns to the mix and you have yourself a pretty balanced attack, especially once the Patriots get into the redzone.

Given the fact that New England's aerial assault is one of the top three in football year after year, why would they possibly want to improve the talent already on their roster?

The answer is pretty simple, once you look at it. The Patriots need a deep threat to overcome matchup deficiencies.

The three most effective defenses against New England offense during the 2011 regular season and 2012 postseason were Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and the East Rutherford Giants in the Super Bowl. These defenses did two things that effectively knocked Patriots quarterback Tom Brady off of his dink-and-dump possession game: covered the intermediate routes and effectively rushed the passer.

Tom Brady's 2007 record-breaking performance will go down as one of the best, if not the best, season by a quarterback in NFL history. Brady had 50 passing touchdowns (an NFL record), won the MVP award, and brought the Patriots to the first 16-0 regular season in NFL history. The key to get back this unprecedented success is to get back to the 2007 template.

The Patriots need Pittsburgh's Mike Wallace to make this happen.

The Steelers slapped the franchise tag on Wallace on Monday before the 4 p.m. deadline that will take a first round draft pick for another team to sign the 25-year old wideout. Wallace finished 2011 with 1,182 yards and eight touchdowns, but has led the NFL in yards per catch since he entered the league in 2009 (18.8 YPC). Mind you, his numbers were "down" a bit last year given the inconsistency at quarterback with Pittsburgh shuffling between an injured Ben Roethlisberger and Fill-in B.

Regardless, He is the epitome of a deep threat.

The Patriots have the luxury of owning the 27th (from New Orleans) and 31st pick in the 2012 NFL Draft plus two second round draft picks. Wallace would likely demand a four-year deal worth around $32-35 million/year plus incentives with $18-20 million guaranteed.

Conventional wisdom says that the Patriots will not try to acquire Wallace or even a blue chip free agent receiver like San Diego's Vincent Jackson or New Orleans' Marques Colston, especially since they just tagged Welker to a $9.5 million contract in 2012. It is well known that the Patriots brass doesn't like to tie up that much money in cap space.

If New England does go against the grain of their trends and make a move to acquire one of the top deep threats in the NFL, it will give them plenty of time to address the porous defense in the Draft with three picks in the first two rounds.

Now to scheme.

Adding Wallace would free up Welker and Hernandez underneath, and open up Chad Ochocinco (who is still under contract through 2012) on the flanks. Plus, constantly threatening with two of the NFL's top receivers on the field at the same time might (and I stress might) open up the running game.

In essence, Wallace would become the new Randy Moss, Ochocinco the new Donte' Stallworth, and Welker the new...well, you get where I'm going with this.

Tom Brady will turn 35 next season. It's time for New England to go, excuse the expression, balls out to win another Super Bowl before Brady makes the trip to Canton.

The next few years might be his last chance.